USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 2 at 84.90, Objs: 82.27/79.65, Stop: 84.90
USD/JPY remains vulnerable having broken down to register new lows for the recent downtrend after last week’s upside failure at 85.91. While 84.50/85.91 caps the short-term risk remains to the downside with risk of the loss of the recent low at 83.60 signalling a likely acceleration lower for the all time low at 79.75 (posted in 1995) over coming weeks. In the meantime, re-capture of 84.50 then 85.91 would suggest that a bear trap may have formed below the old swing low of 84.84, suggesting scope for a powerful short squeeze towards head and shoulders neckline support at 88.14 and possibly psychological 90.00 before renewed selling pressure emerges.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: SHORT 1 at 1.5818, Obj: 1.4893, Stop: 1.5633
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable broke down through last week’s low at 1.5327 but is struggling to sustain the move as the GBP starts to see some out-performance. Still, the multi-week outlook remains negative as the 1.5997 recent swing high is seen as the end of a corrective rebound from the 1.4230 May swing low, and I look for last week’s high at 1.5575 to cap for a crack at 1.4948/1.5000 (outside week support/psychological) then the bear trap level at 1.4781 en route to the 1.4230 major swing low as the 1.7043 bear trend extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1.5575/1.5759 or re-capture of 1.5997 from here to turn positive on a multi-week view, with focus then back on resistances at 1.6458/1.6878 before topping.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 1 at 1.3175, Obj: 1.2375, Stop: 1.3015
EUR/USD is settling in the lower half of last week’s range as last week’s potentially bullish First Thrust pattern is negated and a bearish reversal week looks set to form. With the correction of the 1.3334/1.2588 bear leg most likely complete at 1.2919 I look for breakdown to 1.2588, loss of which should then signal an acceleration towards outside week support at 1.2151 ahead of the 1.1876 May swing low as the larger decline from 1.5144 looks to extend. In the meantime, re-capture of 1.2919/1.3080 would stabilise putting pressure back on 1.3334, above which would suggest scope for a push towards the 1.3692/1.4000 region in a more positive medium-term scenario.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: Stand Aside
The recent decline in USD/CHF showing early signs of exhaustion on the approach to 0.9919/1.0040 where major support comes in from the November 2009 swing low and long-term trendline support. Still, while last week’s 1.0309 First Thrust high caps the short-term risk is seen to the downside although I continue to expect the formation of a major swing low above 0.9919 for a period of multi-month gains within the context of a large sideways range in play since USD/CHF posted a major low in March 2008. Re-capture of 1.0309 would suggest that a major low is place, turning the focus back to the 1.0640 reaction high then the 1.0897 bull trap level initially as medium-term bulls gain control.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 1.0580, Objs: 1.0690/1.0855/1.1130, Stop: 1.0325

Action is getting choppy in the 1.0300/1.0400 area as USD/CAD shows early signs of basing after the pullback from last week’s 1.0673 swing high. While price action may remain choppy over the short-term the longer-term outlook remains positive as the pullback from 1.0853 to 1.0107 is viewed as part of a basing process following the long decline from 1.3063. I look for re-capture of 1.0509 then 1.0673/76 to signal an attack on the 1.0853 swing high, breach of which would confirm the base calling for multi-month gains towards 1.1000 initially. I would need to see the loss of 1.0107 to turn bearish, with risk of breakdown through the 0.9930 April swing low in a resumption of the major downtrend.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
AUD/USD has extended gains stemming from last week’s potentially bullish First Thrust pattern through the recent swing high at 0.9221 as the 0.8067 advance extends. While support at 0.9093 holds the immediate risk is seen to the upside for a crack at key resistance at 0.9388/0.9406 (November/April swing highs), above which could then expose the July 2008 major swing high at 0.9850 to follow. In the meantime, loss of 0.9093 would suggest that a bull trap has formed, with risk then for a return to 0.8770, loss of which would confirm an important top calling for a return to 0.8316 ahead of the 0.8067 swing low as bears regain control.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 1 at 135.40, Objs: 126.90, Stop: 133.70
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY is seeing two-way trade around the recent swing low at 128.64, although last week’s potentially bearish outside pattern continues to weigh. With the 126.77/137.77 May/August advance seen as a completed corrective bounce within the long decline from 163.09 I continue to look for much lower levels over coming weeks, 133.60 expected to cap for an attack on the 126.72 May swing low, loss of which should then seen an extension of the major downtrend towards psychological 120.00 in due course. Settlement back above 133.60 would put pressure back on 137.77, above which would confirm an important low calling for a return to 145.96 initially.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 2 at 108.50, Objs: 103.50/98.50, Stop: 108.50
Exited 1 unit of Short position at 106.50 and lowered stop to cost. EUR/JPY has retraced all of last week’s potentially bullish lower shadow as the recovery from 105.41 falters. With the decline from 114.73 seen as the next leg of the major downtrend from 139.22 following a corrective rebound from 107.31 I continue to expect to see much lower levels going forward, with 109.55/111.57 expected to cap prior to breakdown through 105.40 for an extension of the bear run towards 99.89/100.00 (June 2001 low/psychological) over coming weeks. I would need to see settlement above 111.57 to suggest that a base may be forming, although bulls still need to clear 114.73 to signal a more sustainable recovery going forward.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Sell Limit 3 at 0.8260, Objs: 0.8130/0.7935/0.7610, Stop: 0.8390
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP has broken down sharply to retrace a large portion of last week’s potentially bullish First Thrust pattern. This breakdown shifts the immediate risk back to the downside suggesting that the 0.8142 recent low marked just a temporary base above the 0.8067 June swing low. While the intra-week high at 0.8389 caps I turn my focus back to supports at 0.8067/0.8142, loss of which could then see breakdown towards support at 0.7693 over subsequent weeks. In the meantime, re-capture of 0.8389 would again suggest that an important base has formed for an attack on key resistance at 0.8531, above which would call for a stronger advance towards 0.8773 then psychological 0.9000 as medium-term bulls gain control.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold has extended gains following the bullish reversal week to test bull trap resistance at 1249.40, although early signs of stalling are noted. Still, while outside week support at 1210.30 holds the short-term bias remains to the upside for an attack on the 1265.30 major swing high posted back in June, clearance of which would re-open the 1300.00 handle next as the major bull run extends. In the meantime, loss of 1210.30 would suggest that an important reaction high has formed below 1265.30 increasing the risk of breakdown towards key support at 1157.03, the loss of which would confirm a major top for Gold.






Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver remains in bull mode having seen an acceleration higher to clear the May swing high at 19.826 as follow-through gains unfold after the breach of the May swing high at 18.690. With the bias firmly to the upside I look for old resistance at 18.690/19.465 to hold for an attack on the March 2008 major swing high at 21.335 over subsequent weeks as the major uptrend looks to extend. In the meantime, loss of 18.690 would suggest that an important top could be forming after the long bull market, with focus then turning to key support at 17.198/17.337, loss of which would be very negative for Silver.








Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Disclaimer
No information published constitutes an offer or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests

Copyright

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK













Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454