USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 83.50, Objs: 84.80/86.75/88.70, Stop: 82.20
USD/JPY is back on the offensive having based out in the 81.49/83.16 support zone as a potentially bullish reversal pattern forms. With the rebound from 80.24 to 84.40 seen as the early stages of a new multi-month advance I continue to expect further gains going forward, with breach of 84.40 to signal an acceleration for the 85.94 reaction high then psychological 90.00 over coming weeks. In the meantime, settlement below 81.49/82.34 would suggest topping for a resumption of the major downtrend through 79.75/80.24 for psychological 75.00 over subsequent weeks.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.5728, Objs: 1.5541/1.5261/1.4980, Stop: 1.5915
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable has seen a reaction higher from 1.5485 as a temporary oversold condition unwinds following the previous week’s bearish Thrust pattern, although bulls are struggling to hold above 1.5800. While action may remain choppy over the short-term the velocity of the decline from 1.6299 to 1.5485 suggests completion of a major top and I continue to expect 1.5729/1.5892 to cap for a return to the reaction low at 1.5297 then psychological 1.5000 next as medium-term bears gain control. I would need to see settlement above resistance at 1.5892 from here to signal another crack at the 1.6106/1.6299 resistance zone, above which would be positive on a multi-month basis.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.3299, Objs: 1.3143/1.2909/1.2675, Stop: 1.3455
EUR/USD is working lower again after the corrective rebound from 1.2969 stalled in the 1.3334/1.3447 resistance window. While action may remain choppy over the short-term the breakdown from 1.4282 to 1.2969 looks to have confirmed a major top and I continue to expect 1.3334/1.3447 to cap prior to seeing breakdown through 1.2969 for the 1.2588 reaction low then psychological 1.2000 as medium-term bears gain control. I would need to see settlement back above 1.3447 from here to signal scope for another crack at 1.3786 and possibly the 1.4282 swing high in a more positive medium-term scenario.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: LONG 3 at 0.9855, Objs: 0.9990/1.0193/1.0395, Stop: 0.9720
USD/CHF is settling well above broken support at 0.9762 as the pullback from the 1.0066 swing high falters, last week’s potentially bearish outside pattern seeing a good retracement. This adds weight to the basing scenario which sees the 0.9462 October swing low as the inception point of a new multi-month advance, and I look for re-capture of 1.0066 to signal an attack on the 1.0331/1.0626 congestion initially. I would need to see settlement back below 0.9762 from here to again raise the spectre of seeing another crack at the 0.9462 swing low, loss to re-open psychological 0.9000 in a resumption of the 1.1731 bear swing.











Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside

USD/CAD is seeing a good retracement of last week’s potentially bearish outside pattern suggesting basing ahead of the 0.9978 recent swing low. Still, while 1.0145 caps the short-term risk is still to the downside for a crack at the 0.9930/0.9978 major support zone, the loss of which could see breakdown towards the 0.9710/0.9819 region in an extension of the long-term downtrend. I would need to see the re-capture of 1.0145 from here to again look for an extension of the recovery through 1.0286/1.0373 for 1.0673/1.0853 as a basing process unfolds.











Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
AUD/USD has reversed lower after follow-through buying on last week’s potentially bullish reversal pattern stalled at 0.9965. Still, last week’s pattern confirmed an important low at 0.9537 putting immediate pressure back on the upside and while 0.9737 holds I can’t rule out another crack at the 1.0183 swing high as bulls aim to extend the major uptrend. In the meantime, settlement back below 0.9737 would increase topping risks, with loss of 0.9537 then 0.9388/0.9406 to re-open the 0.8770/0.9221 congestion as a new downtrend gets underway.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy limit 3 at 131.35, Objs: 132.90/135.22/137.55, Stop: 129.80
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY has breached resistance at 131.74 to suggest completion of an important low at 129.34. With 129.34 seen as the likely end of the correction of the 126.44/134.20 advance I look for further gains going forward, breach of 134.20 to signal an attack on 137.77 over coming weeks as a new uptrend gets underway. In the meantime, loss of 129.34 would suggest another crack at the 126.44 swing low, the loss of which could see a resumption of the medium-term downtrend towards psychological 120.00.










Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/JPY is holding up well as last week’s potentially bullish lower shadow buoys for the time being. This gives the bulls a small window of opportunity to fail the downside break of support at 111.04, with re-capture of 112.96 to suggest that a bear trap has formed calling for another crack at the 115.66 swing high initially in an extension of the 105.42 advance. Failure to see this revival unfold over the next few weeks would again risk breakdown through 108.34 for 105.42 initially as the major downtrend extends.








Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP is working lower after the promising recovery from 0.8334 stalled at 0.8525. While we could see some sideways action to unwind the decline from 0.8941 the medium-term outlook remains negative after settlement back below the pivotal 0.8531 level, and I expect 0.8522/0.8595 to cap bounces prior to seeing an attack on 0.8067/0.8142 supports initially as medium-term bears regain control. Settlement back above 0.8595 would suggest scope for another crack at 0.8800 and possibly the 0.8941 swing high, breach of which would re-open the 0.9148 reaction high as the 0.8067 advance extends.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.3150, Objs: 1.2990/1.2750/1.2510, Stop: 1.3310
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
EUR/CHF is seeing some corrective upside activity from 1.2932 as psychological support at 1.3000 comes into play. While we could see further choppy activity to unwind the decline from 1.3674 to 1.2932 I remain bearish on a medium-term basis as the decline from 1.3834 is viewed as the early stages of the next leg of the long-term downtrend and I look for broken support at 1.3229 to cap for an attack on the 1.2765 swing low then 1.2500 as the major downtrend resumes. I would need to see settlement back above 1.3229/1.3324 from here to stabilise, although 1.3674/1.3834 are key to a bullish reversal in medium-term trend.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold followed Silver into new highs for the major uptrend extending gains on the back of last week’s potentially bullish First Thrust pattern, but 1431.25 has capped the move so far as a potentially bearish reversal week forms. This suggests that a bull trap may have formed above the 1424.60 previous swing high increasing risk of an attack on the 1329.70 reaction low, loss of which would re-open 1265.30/1300.00 over subsequent weeks as the correction extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1424.60 from here to revive for 1500.00/1519.50 (psychological/projection target).








Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver saw follow-through buying on the breach of resistance at 27.9212 then the 29.3600 swing high but the move has stalled at 30.705, support at 29.3350 now lost. This breakdown suggests that a bull trap may have formed above the old swing high increasing the risk of seeing a deeper setback towards the 25.0100 reaction low as the correction extends. I would need to see the settlement back above 29.3600 to again call for a crack at the 33.7100 projection target over subsequent weeks.










Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228


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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454