USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 84.71, Objs: 85.97/87.86/89.75, Stop: 83.45
USD/JPY formed an inside pattern last week stunting the intervention-led recovery from 82.88 to 85.94. While further side to down action may ensue over the next week or so the velocity of the rebound from 82.88 to 85.94 which saw a bullish outside week pattern suggests that a bear trap has formed below the November swing low of 84.84 raising the prospects of seeing a stronger advance over coming weeks. I look for the lower end of the 83.89/84.90 support window to hold prior to seeing an attack on 85.94, breach of which should see a re-test of broken head and shoulders neckline support at 88.14 and possibly psychological 90.00. Settlement below 83.89 would suggest that bears have regained control, signalling a resumption of the major downtrend through 82.88 for the all time low at 79.75 (posted in 1995) over subsequent weeks.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: LONG 2 at 1.5590, Objs: 1.5993/1.6255, Stop: 1.5590
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable remains firm having seen a second consecutive bullish weekly Thrust pattern adding further weight to the bullish scenario. This sees the recent low at 1.5297 as the end of the correction of the 1.4230/1.5997 bull swing, with support at 1.5511/1.5675 expected to contain dips prior to seeing an attack on the 1.5997 swing high, breach of which should see follow-through buying for the 1.6458 reaction high ahead of key resistance at 1.6878/1.7043 (August/November 2009 highs) as the top of a large range is probed. In the meantime, settlement below 1.5511 would suggest that the 1.5297 rally is corrective, increasing the risk of eventual breakdown through 1.5297 for 1.4948/1.5000 (outside week support/psychological) then the bear trap level at 1.4781 initially.

Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Look to buy
EUR/USD is seeing some corrective downside activity this week as last week’s powerful advance unwinds. The formation of two consecutive bullish Thrust weeks adds weight to the bullish outlook which sees the break above the previous swing high at 1.3334 confirming the next leg of the larger advance from the June swing low at 1.1876 following the corrective pullback to 1.2588. I look for support at 1.3029/1.3337 to hold for an attack on the 1.3692/1.4000 region initially as the 1.1876 advance extends, with the loss of support at 1.3029 required to suggest that a bull trap has formed. I would then turn my focus back to 1.2588, the loss of which would re-open outside week support at 1.2151 ahead of the 1.1876 May swing low in a resumption of the 1.5144 bear run.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: Look to sell
USD/CHF is seeing some corrective upside activity as last week’s bearish First Thrust pattern is retraced. The pattern most likely confirmed the break below key support at 0.9919/0.9932 (recent swing low/November 2009 swing low) keeping the immediate risk to the downside, and I look for 0.9919/1.0119 to cap for an attack on the March 2008 all-time low at 0.9648 ahead of psychological 0.9500 next as USD/CHF plumbs new depths. I would need to see the re-capture of resistance at 1.0119 from here to suggest that a bear trap has formed, with the prospects then for a stronger rebound back towards the 1.0331/1.0626 congestion as losses from 1.1731 are retraced.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Look to sell

USD/CAD is seeing a deep retracement of last week’s potentially bearish outside pattern as further evidence of basing emerges after the pullback from 1.0673. While we could see further side to up action over the short-term the medium-term outlook remains negative as the 1.0673 appears to be the end of a bearish continuation pattern. I look for 1.0379/1.0509 to cap prior to eventual breakdown through 1.0107/1.0191, loss of which should then see breakdown through the 0.9930 April swing low in a resumption of the major downtrend from 1.3063. I would need to see the re-capture of 1.0509 to suggest that a major low has been traded, with focus then back on 1.0673/1.0853 as a potential base pattern forms.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Look to buy
AUD/USD is seeing some corrective weakness from 0.9644 as gains start to look a little overdone after 5 up-weeks. While some lateral activity may ensue to unwind the 0.8770 move the clearance of major resistance coming in from the November and April swing highs at 0.9388/0.9406 signalled a resumption of the 0.8067 advance, with prospects of seeing a test of the July 2008 major swing high at 0.9850 in due course as the larger advance from the October 2008 low at 0.6008 extends. I would expect support at 0.9093/0.9347 to hold for moves higher, with loss there to offer early warning that a bull trap may have formed increasing the risk of seeing a return to 0.8770 then 0.8067/0.8316 as medium-term bears gain control.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 132.08, Objs: 135.11/139.65/144.20, Stop: 129.05
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY is seeing some corrective activity as the potentially bullish outside week pattern of two weeks ago is retraced. The pattern confirmed a solid reaction low above the 126.72 May swing low at 127.63 keeping immediate pressure on the upside and while support at 130.07/132.52 holds I see scope for re-capture of 135.04 to signal an attack on key resistance at 137.77, the breach of which would confirm a double bottom pattern calling for a period of multi-month gains towards the April reaction high at 145.96 initially. Failing that, settlement below 130.07 from here would risk breakdown through 126.72/127.63 for psychological 120.00 initially as the 163.09 downtrend resumes.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Look to buy
EUR/JPY is seeing some sideways activity as some corrective downside pressure emerges ahead of key resistance at 114.73. The velocity of the rebound from 105.42 trapped sellers of break below the July swing low at 107.31 raising the prospects of seeing a stronger advance over coming weeks, with 109.07/111.39 expected to hold for an attack on 114.73, clearance of which would confirm a large double-bottom pattern calling for a period of multi-month gains towards broken support at 119.65 initially. In the meantime, loss of support at 109.07 would suggest that the rebound has run its course, exposing 105.42 then 99.89/100.00 (June 2001 low/psychological) over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 0.8454, Objs: 0.8578/0.8764/0.8950, Stop: 0.8330
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP is seeing some corrective downside activity as last week potentially bullish First Thrust pattern is retraced. The pattern saw an extension of the 0.8142 advance through key resistance at 0.8531 signalling completion of a base pattern for this cross effectively turning the major trend “up” after a long period of GBP outperformance. I look for support at 0.8371/0.8472 to contain bear probes prior to seeing an attack on 0.8773 then psychological 0.9000 initially as medium-term bulls gain control. In the meantime, loss of 0.8331 from here would suggest completion of a bear market rally, paving the way for an attack of support at 0.8067/0.8142, penetration of which should then see breakdown towards 0.7693 over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: LONG 3 at 1.3140, Objs: 1.3395/1.3778/1.4160, Stop: 1.3070
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
EUR/CHF is seeing some lateral activity around 1.3200 as the 1.2765/1.3390 advance is digested. The rebound from the 1.2765 swing low trapped sellers of the break below the July swing low at 1.3073 raising the prospects of seeing further short covering going forward and I continue to expect the 1.2971/1.3178 support window to contain dips prior to seeing a return to 1.3390, breach of which should then see the last reaction high within the 2007/2010 bear market at 1.3924 and possibly broken support at 1.4300. In the meantime, loss of support at 1.2971 would suggest that bears have regained control, risking breakdown towards 1.2500 next.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 1277.70, Objs: 1302.40/1339.45/1376.50, Stop: 1253.00

Gold remains buoyant having seen a weekly close in new high ground for the major uptrend, the yellow metal probing the long-awaited 1300.00 handle. With June’s major swing high at 1265.30 now firmly behind us the risk is seen for an extension of the 1157.03 advance towards the 1373.50 area where a projection target comes in over coming weeks. I would expect the old resistance level at 1265.30 to switch to support for moves higher, with settlement back under there to raise the prospects that a bull trap may have formed. Focus would then turn to outside week support at 1210.30 and possibly 1157.03 as medium-term bears gain control.







Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 20.900, Objs: 21.630/22.720/23.820, Stop: 20.170

Silver has followed the lead of Gold in breaking up to new record highs in an acceleration of gains after last week’s brief pause around psychological 20.00. With the March 2008 major swing high at 21.335 now breached the bias remains firmly to the upside and I look for 19.465/20.000 (old resistance/psychological) to hold for an attack on the measured move target at 24.265 over coming weeks. In the meantime, settlement back under 19.465 would suggest that a bull trap could have formed raising the spectre of seeing a return to 17.198/17.337 supports initially as medium-term bears gain control








Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454