USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 80.05, Objs: 81.20/82.93/84.65, Stop: 78.90
Remains under pressure as the decline heads towards the all time low at 79.75 posted in 1995. With the decline from 85.94 looking highly over-extended on a short-term basis after five consecutive down weeks I see scope for a good short squeeze to unwind a temporary oversold state, with re-capture of 81.45 to offer scope for a return to broken support at 82.88 and possibly 85.94 on a stronger rebound before medium-term bears can regain control for 75.00 over subsequent weeks. I would need to see the re-capture of resistance at 85.94 from here to re-open the broken head and shoulders neckline at 88.14 and possibly psychological 90.00 in a more positive medium-term scenario.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: SHORT 2 at 1.5945, Objs: 1.5475/1.5205, Stop: 1.5945
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable remains vulnerable after last week’s loss of support at 1.5749 which confirmed a 1.6106 swing high. With a bull trap forming above the 1.5997 August swing high I see risk of further weakness going forward, with 1.5750/1.5900 seen capping for a return to psychological 1.5500 then the 1.5297 reaction low, loss of which would be bearish on a multi-week basis calling for sub-1.5000 levels. I would need to see the settlement back above 1.5997 or breach of the 1.6106 swing high to turn positive again, with scope then for a push towards the 1.6458 reaction high as the larger advance from 1.4230 extends.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Sell Stop 3 at 1.3932, Objs: 1.3779/1.3550/1.3320, Stop: 1.4086
EUR/USD has breached resistance at 1.4050 to threaten another crack at the 1.4159 swing high having confirmed a reaction low at 1.3698. While further gains could be seen over the short-term the 1.2588 advance is looking highly over-extended after registering four consecutive bullish Thrust weeks, and I see scope for a correction of the 1.2588 advance over coming weeks, loss of 1.3934 to signal a return to 1.3500/1.3637 or so before medium-term bulls can regain control. Further out the uptrend remains healthy and I look for an attack on the 1.4580 reaction high to follow a healthy corrective pullback. I would need to see settlement back under the old swing high at 1.3334 to turn bearish on a medium-term basis, with focus then back on 1.2588 initially in a more bearish medium-term scenario.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: Stand Aside
USD/CHF has rejected back from 0.9804 as the rebound from the 0.9462 swing low falters. While we could continue to see choppy activity the recent decline is looking highly over-extended after five consecutive down weeks and I suspect that we will see further corrective upside activity to unwind the latest leg of the decline, with broken support at 0.9919 looming on a corrective upswing. Further out the downtrend remains intact and I look for the 0.9919 area to cap for eventual breakdown through 0.9462 towards psychological 0.9000 after the projected corrective rebound. I would need to see settlement back above 0.9919 then 1.0278 to suggest that a bear trap has formed, with prospects then for a stronger rebound back to 1.0626.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 2 at 1.0110, Objs: 1.0448/1.0650, Stop: 1.0110

USD/CAD is correcting back after the rebound from the 1.0373 recovery high as the rebound from the 0.9980 swing low falters. The breach of resistance at 1.0107/1.0183 confirmed a solid low at 0.9980 trapping sellers of the recent break below the August swing low of 1.0107 raising the prospects of seeing a stronger rebound going forward as a short squeeze unfolds, and while 1.0100 holds, I look for a return to 1.0673/1.0853 as the upper end of an unfolding trading range is probed. In the meantime, loss of 1.0100 would suggest that medium-term bears are back in control with scope then for breakdown through key supports at 0.9930/0.9980 in a resumption of the major downtrend for 0.9710/0.9819 supports next.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
AUD/USD has rebounded sharply from 0.9662 to breach resistance at 0.9892 offering scope for another crack at the 1.0003 swing high. However, the 0.8770 advance is looking highly over-stretched following five consecutive bullish Thrust weeks and I see scope for a retracement of the advance from 0.8770, loss of 0.9824 to signal a return to 0.9406/0.9542 before a base can form for the next leg up towards 1.0344/1.0500. I would need to see the settlement back under 0.9406 from here to suspect that a bull trap has formed, with the risk then for a return to 0.9221 then 0.8770 as medium-term bears gain control.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY is seeing an acceleration of the 135.04 bear swing as support at 127.63 gives way. With the 135.04 recovery high seen as a reaction high within the lateral trading range in place since May when a 126.72 swing low was traded I continue to look for much lower levels with 128.97/130.23 to cap for an attack on key 126.72, loss of which could see rapid breakdown to psychological 120.00 next as the 163.09 downtrend resumes. In the meantime, re-capture of 130.23 would offer early warning of basing, while re-capture of 135.04 would suggest that a major base has formed for multi-month gains.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 112.60, Objs: 114.25/116.72/119.20, Stop: 110.95
EUR/JPY has rebounded sharply from 111.55 as the pullback from the 115.66 swing high stalls in the projected 109.05/112.31 support zone after forming a potentially bullish lower shadow. While further choppy activity could ensue in the short-term I remain bullish over the medium-term following completion of a bear trap below the July swing low and I look for support to hold prior to seeing an attack on 115.66 then broken support at 119.65 as the 105.42 advance extends. In the meantime, settlement back under 109.05 would suggest that the rebound from 105.42 was corrective, exposing 105.42 then 99.89/100.00 (June 2001 low/psychological) over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP continues to drift higher after a temporary pause in the 0.8800/0.8850 region as the 0.8142 advance extends. While the cross is looking vulnerable to a period of corrective weakness the major trend remains “up” after breach of 0.8531 and while we could see the 0.8602 area on a retracement I look for corrective weakness to be held prior to seeing an attack on psychological 0.9000 then the 0.9148 reaction high as the move extends. In the meantime, settlement back under 0.8531 would suggest completion of a bear market rally, paving the way for an attack of support at 0.8067/0.8142, penetration of which should then see breakdown towards 0.7693 over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: Sell Stop 3 at 1.3490, Objs: 1.3305/1.3028/1.2750, Stop: 1.3575
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
Breach of the recent swing high at 1.3493 has extended the recovery from the 1.2765 swing low resolving a narrow range to the upside. While support at 1.3493 holds the bulls have the advantage with scope for an extension of the recovery towards the last reaction high within the 2007/2010 bear market at 1.3924 as the short squeeze extends over coming weeks. However, the long-term trend remains “down” and failure to see gains unfold, confirmed by loss of 1.3493 then 1.3387, would suggest that the 1.2765 rebound was a completed bear market rally. I would then look for breakdown through 1.2765 towards 1.2500.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold is seeing choppy activity having rejected from a new all-time-high at 1387.35 as profit-taking kicks in after five consecutive bullish Thrust weeks. While 1340.35/1375.14 caps the risk remains for further corrective activity as the 1157.03 advance unwinds over coming weeks, with risk seen down towards 1300.00 and possibly the old swing high at 1265.30 on a retracement before bulls can re-group for a resumption of the major bull trend through 1387.35 for 1450.00/1500.00 further out. I would need to settlement back under the old swing high at 1265.30 to turn negative on a medium-term basis, with risk then down to outside week support at 1210.30 and then 1157.03 to follow.






Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver is seeing choppy activity having rejected sharply from a new swing of 24.892 as early signs of topping emerge after eight consecutive up-weeks. While I see room for some side/down activity to unwind the recent accelerated move and we could head back towards support in the 21.000/21.820 region I look for the pullback to be limited there prior to basing for the next leg up through 24.892 towards psychological 30.000 over subsequent weeks. I would need to see the settlement back under 21.000/21.335 from here to suggest that a bull trap has formed, raising the prospects of seeing a return to 17.198/17.337 supports initially as medium-term bears gain control








Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228


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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454