USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy Limit 3 at 82.55, Objs: 83.65/85.30/86.95, Stop: 81.45
USD/JPY is seeing some corrective weakness following the powerful recovery from 80.93 which confirmed an important reaction low above the 80.24 November swing low. The advance has trapped sellers of the downside break of support at 82.34 suggesting scope for a powerful short squeeze, and I look for the 81.76/82.86 area to hold for an attack on the 84.51 December swing high, above which would confirm the base pattern calling for a return to the 85.94 reaction high then psychological 90.00 over coming weeks/months. I would need to see settlement below 81.76 to suggest another crack at key 80.24/80.93 then the all time low at 79.75 as the major downtrend resumes.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable saw an acceleration of gains on the break above resistance at 1.5665 last week as the recovery from the 1.5345 swing low extends. While further sideways to higher action cannot be ruled out over the short-term the rebound is viewed as corrective of the 1.6299/1.5345 decline which is seen as the first leg of a new multi-month downtrend, and I look for the 1.5911/1.6013 area to cap for a resumption of weakness through 1.5345/1.5665 for psychological 1.5000 initially over subsequent weeks as the downtrend gets going. I would need to see settlement above 1.6013 from here to threaten the 1.6299 swing high in a more positive multi-month scenario which would expose 1.6878/1.7043 initially.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Sell Stop 3 at 1.3164, Objs: 1.2944/1.2614/1.2284, Stop: 1.3384
EUR/USD has broken down from 1.3457 as early signs of topping emerge after last week’s powerful advance from 1.2874. While action could remain choppy over the short-term, the breakdown from the 1.4282 swing high is viewed as the first leg of a new multi-month downtrend and I expect loss of 1.3049/1.3165 to signal a crack at the 1.2874 swing low, loss of which should then see an acceleration of weakness for 1.2500/1.2588 then psychological 1.2000 as the 1.4282 bear swing extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1.3860 from here to threaten the 1.4282 swing high, above which would be bullish on a multi-month basis.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: LONG 3 at 0.9740, Objs: 0.9900/1.0140/1.0380, Stop: 0.9580
USD/CHF is seeing some corrective activity as the rebound from the 0.9300 swing low to 0.9784 unwinds. The advance trapped sellers of the downside break of the 0.9462 October swing low increasing the prospects of seeing a powerful short squeeze going forward as trapped short sellers bail out of losing positions. I look for the 0.9445/0.9638 support zone to hold for an attack on 0.9784 then the 1.0066 reaction high, breach of which would confirm a large base pattern calling for a return to the 1.0331/1.0626 congestion zone initially as bulls gain control. Settlement back under 0.9445 from here would again risk another crack at the 0.9300 swing low then psychological 0.9000 before a major low can be attempted.








Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Buy Stop 3 at 0.9985, Objs: 1.0125/1.0335/1.0545, Stop: 0.9845

USD/CAD saw an extension of weakness on the loss of key support at 0.9930/0.9978 but early signs of basing are noted at 0.9848. This raises the prospects of seeing a good short squeeze going forward, with re-capture of 0.9984 then 1.0034 to confirm a major swing low calling for an extension of the recovery towards reaction highs at 1.0208 and 1.0373, above which would confirm a large base pattern calling for a return to reaction highs at 1.0673 and 1.0853 over subsequent weeks as bulls gain control. In the meantime, failure to reclaim and settle above 0.9984 would threaten breakdown towards 0.9710/0.9819 then 0.9500 before a major low can form.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
AUD/USD is starting to look vulnerable after breakdown from the 1.0256 swing high. The decline trapped buyers of the upside break of the previous swing high at 1.0183 raising the prospects of seeing a deeper setback as trapped break-buyers bail out of losing positions. I look for 0.9939/1.0121 to cap for breakdown towards the 0.9537 reaction low, loss of which would confirm a top pattern calling for a return to 0.9388/0.9406 then the 0.8770/0.9221 congestion as a new downtrend gets underway. In the meantime, settlement back above 1.0121 would again risk an attack on 1.0256/1.0300 in an extension of the major uptrend.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY remains buoyant following the powerful recovery from the 125.48 swing low which saw consecutive bullish Thrust patterns. The advance trapped sellers of the recent break below the 126.44 October swing low increasing the risk of seeing a powerful short squeeze going forward as trapped shorts bail out, and I look for 128.67/129.95 to hold for an attack on the reaction high at 134.20, above which would confirm a base pattern calling for a crack at 137.77 then 140.00 as medium-term bulls gain control. Settlement back under 128.67 from here would suggest that bears have regained control, threatening a re-test of 125.48 then psychological 120.00 in a resumption of the major downtrend.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/JPY is seeing a good retracement of last week’s powerful advance from 106.82 which formed a potentially bullish pattern. The rebound trapped sellers of the downside break of the 108.34 swing low and while 108.90/109.73 holds the risk is seen to the upside for a return to 112.19 and possibly the 115.00/115.66 resistance band as a trading range takes shape. In the meantime, settlement back under 108.90 from here would suggest that last week saw a one-shot correction of the 115.66 bear swing, threatening breakdown through 106.82 for 105.42 August swing low initially as the major downtrend resumes.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP is showing early signs of basing having failed to sustain the break below the recent swing low at 0.8334. Still, I would need to see the settlement back above minor resistance at 0.8499 to add credence to a basing call which sees re-capture of the 0.8647 reaction high calling for an attack on the 0.8941 October swing high initially as medium-term bulls gain control. Failing that, loss of 0.8285 would again risk breakdown towards key support at 0.8067/0.8142 initially as the 0.8941 bear swing resumes.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
EUR/CHF has seen a powerful recovery from 1.2401 as the oversold nature of December’s climactic decline becomes apparent. The rebound trapped sellers of the break below the September swing low at 1.2765 suggesting scope for a good short squeeze, and which 1.2726/1.2785 holds I see scope for a return to psychological 1.3000 then broken support at 1.3229 as weak shorts are exited. In the meantime, settlement back below 1.2726/1.2765 would suggest that bears have regained control, risking breakdown through 1.2401 for psychological 1.2000 in an extension of the major downtrend.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold look vulnerable having breached First Thrust support at 1372.80 to signal failure ahead of the 1431.25 December swing high. This increases the risk that a topping process is unfolding after the long bull market and while psychological resistance at 1400.00 caps I see risk of a return to the 1329.70 reaction low and possibly support at 1265.30/1300.00 over coming weeks as the correction extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1400.00 from here to signal another crack at 1431.25, above which would call for 1500.00 initially as the bull-run extends.









Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver remains vulnerable having formed a potentially bearish outside week pattern which signalled failure above the previous swing high of 30.7050 as signs of topping emerge after the accelerated advance. This increases the risk of seeing a deeper setback to unwind the record-breaking advance and while psychological 30.0000 caps I look for loss of 27.9900/28.3469 to signal a return to towards the 25.0100 reaction low over subsequent weeks. I would need to see the settlement back above 30.0000 from here to call for a crack at the 31.2487 swing high then the 33.7100 projection target over subsequent weeks.









Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist,