USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 2 at 81.40, Objs: 84.15/85.80, Stop: 81.40
USD/JPY has extended the recovery from the 80.24 swing low to re-visit the 82.88/85.94 congestion as last week’s potentially bullish First Thrust pattern buoys. With the 85.94 bear swing looking complete just ahead of the 1995 all-time low of 79.75 I see scope for further gains going forward, with 81.59/82.44 now expected to hold for a return to the 85.94 reaction high, breach to re-open psychological 90.00 as a new uptrend gets underway. In the meantime, loss of 81.59 would suggest that a bear market rally has ended, with risk then for breakdown through 79.75/80.24 towards 75.00 in a resumption of the major downtrend.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.6055, Objs: 1.5895/1.5655/1.5415, Stop: 1.6215
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable is on the defensive after last week’s bounce failed to eclipse resistance at 1.6214 as bulls struggle to sustain the break above the previous swing high at 1.6106. With the breakdown from the 1.6299 swing high completing a Bull Trap pattern signalling completion of the advance from the 1.4230 May swing low I see risk of further weakness going forward, with 1.6154/1.6214 likely to cap for a return to reaction lows at 1.5650 and 1.5297 initially as medium-term bears look to gain control. In the meantime, re-capture of 1.6214 would suggest scope for another crack at the highs, with 1.6458 then possible as the advance extends.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 2 at 1.4070, Objs: 1.3533/1.3210, Stop: 1.3940
Lowered stop to 1.3940. EUR/USD remains under pressure having breached support at 1.3864 to signal completion of a Bull Trap as buyers of the 1.4159 swing high break run for cover. With last week’s potentially bearish First Thrust pattern confirming an important swing high at 1.4282 I look for further weakness going forward, with 1.3718/1.3928 now expected to cap for a return to former resistance at 1.3334 as medium-term bears look to gain control. I would need to see the settlement back above 1.3928 or re-capture of 1.4086 to signal a revival, with scope then for an extension of the advance through 1.4282 towards the 1.4580 area en route to 1.5000/1.5144 resistances.


Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: LONG 3 at 0.9765, Objs: 0.9940/1.0203/1.0465, Stop: 0.9665
Raised stop to 0.9665. USD/CHF is looking buoyant having rebounded from 0.9548 to settle back above broken support at 0.9663 to all but negate the previous week’s potentially bearish outside week pattern. With the 0.9971/0.9548 pullback seen as a one-shot correction of the rebound from the 0.9462 swing low I see scope for further gains with 0.9672/0.9786 expected to hold for an attack on 0.9971, breach of which would confirm a an important swing low calling for a return to 1.0331/1.0626 next. In the meantime, settlement back under 0.9672 or loss of 0.9548 would again risk breakdown through 0.9462 for psychological 0.9000 as the major downtrend resumes.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 1.0095, Objs: 1.0215/1.0395/1.0575, Stop: 0.9995

Entered Long as above. USD/CAD is looking constructive after last week’s potentially bullish reversal pattern saw settlement back above 1.0094, signalling bear failure just below the recent swing low at 0.9980. With a Bear Trap possibly in place I look for 1.0028/1.0095 to hold for an attack on First Thrust resistance at 1.0202, breach of which would complete the Trap calling for a return to 1.0373, above which would confirm a base pattern calling for a return to 1.0673/1.0853 as the upper end of a developing trading range is probed. I would need to see settlement back under 1.0028 or loss of 0.9978 from here to revive the downtrend, with risk then for an attack on key support at 0.9930, loss of which could then see an extension of weakness for 0.9710/0.9819.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Sell Limit 3 at 0.9915, Objs: 0.9755/0.9515/0.9275, Stop: 1.0075
AUD/USD broke down sharply to settle back below the previous swing high of 1.0003 to effectively trap buyers of the recent upside break. With a potentially major high now in place at 1.0183 I see risk of further weakness going forward, with 0.9915/1.0003 now expected to cap for a return to the 0.9652 reaction low, loss of which would threaten a deeper retracement back towards 0.9406 initially as medium-term bears look to gain control. I would need to see the settlement back above 1.0003 to let break-buyers off the hook, with scope then for a crack at psychological 1.0500.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 1 at 129.10, Obj: 135.90, Stop: 130.80
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY remains buoyant as the recovery from the 126.44 swing low extends for a fourth week. With the powerful rebound from 126.44 trapping sellers of the break below the May/September lows I see scope for a stronger advance going forward, with 131.01/132.58 now expected to hold for a return to 135.04 and possibly 137.77 over coming weeks as trapped shorts bail out. In the meantime, loss of 131.01 would suggest a re-test of the 126.44 swing low, loss of which could resume the medium-term downtrend through towards psychological 120.00 initially.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/JPY is seeing directionless trade within the confines of a 111.04/115.66 trading band as the cross effectively marks time. I would need to see the resolution to this trading band to provide clues to multi-week/multi-month direction, with breach of 115.66 to signal upside resolution for an extension of the 105.42 advance towards broken support at 119.65 initially. Conversely, loss of 111.03 would suggest that the 105.42/115.66 move was a bear market bounce, paving the way for a resumption of the major downtrend for psychological 110.00 then the 105.42 swing low over subsequent weeks.






Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP remains vulnerable having seen an extension of the pullback from the 0.8941 swing high to settle back below the pivotal 0.8531 level. The speed of the decline and settlement back under 0.8531 suggests that the rebound from the 0.8067 swing low to 0.8941 was a bear market rally, and I now expect 0.8522/0.8619 to act as resistance for an attack on 0.8067/0.8142 supports initially as medium-term bears regain control. In the meantime, settlement back above 0.8619 would suggest scope for another crack at 0.8941, breach of which would re-open the 0.9148 reaction high as the 0.8067 advance extends.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.3410, Objs: 1.3265/1.3048/1.2830, Stop: 1.3555
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
Entered Short as above. EUR/CHF is seeing some corrective upside activity to unwind the breakdown from the 1.3834 swing high to 1.3229. The decline signalled completion of the 1.2765 bear market rally at 1.3834 and I look further weakness going forward, with 1.3410/1.3531 expected to cap prior to seeing a return to psychological 1.3000 then the 1.2765 swing low as the major downtrend resumes over coming weeks. In the meantime, settlement back above 1.3531 would threaten another crack at the 1.3834 swing high, above which would call for further headway towards 1.3924/1.4000 before a top can form.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Sell Limit 3 at 1376.50, Objs: 1348.50/1306.50/1264.50, Stop: 1404.50

Gold has rejected sharply from a new swing high at 1424.60 to breach support at 1386.82/1387.35, confirming a potentially bearish reversal week pattern. This suggests that a Bull Trap may have formed above the old swing high increasing the risk of seeing a deeper setback towards the 1315.45 reaction low over coming weeks, loss of which would re-open 1265.30/1300.00 before a base can form. In the meantime, re-capture of 1404.00 would suggest scope for a push towards the 1459.25 measured move target before a top can be attempted for a period of multi-week losses.







Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver


Strategy: Sell Limit 3 at 26.880, Objs: 25.710/23.955/22.200, Stop: 28.050

Silver has rejected sharply from a new swing high of 29.3600 to breach support at 26.4525 as early signs of topping emerge after the recent accelerated advance. This leaves behind a potentially bearish long upper shadow warning of scope for a decent correction of the recent advance, with the 27.0000/28.0000 area expected to cap for a return to the 22.8512/24.8925 congestion initially as gains are unwound. In the meantime, re-capture of 28.0000 would signal a revival for new swing highs.









Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228


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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454