[list=][/list]USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 83.50, Objs: 84.80/86.75/88.70, Stop: 82.20
USD/JPY is seeing choppy action ahead of the 84.40 swing high as a tight band develops. The overall tone remains positive as the rebound from 80.24 to 84.40 is seen as the first leg of a new multi-month advance, and I continue to expect 82.34 to hold for signal an acceleration of gains towards the 85.94 reaction high then psychological 90.00 over coming weeks/months. I would need to see settlement below 82.34 to suggest another crack at key support at 79.75/80.24 (1995 all time low and recent swing low), loss of which would re-open psychological 75.00 over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.5730, Objs: 1.5548/1.5275/1.5002, Stop: 1.5912
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Entered Short as above. Cable has reversed from 1.5911 as a potentially bearish reversal week forms. The medium-term outlook remains bearish as the breakdown from the 1.6299 swing high to 1.5485 is seen as the first leg of a new multi-month downtrend, and look for loss of 1.5655 then the 1.5485 swing low to see an acceleration of weakness for the reaction low at 1.5297 then psychological 1.5000 as the downtrend gets going. I would need to see settlement above 1.5911/1.6055 from here to signal another crack at the 1.6299 swing high, above which would be positive on a multi-month basis.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: SHORT 3 at 1.3295, Objs: 1.3114/1.2843/1.2571, Stop 1.3476
Entered Short as above. EUR/USD has rejected from just short of 1.3500 as the recovery from 1.2969 stalls. The medium-term outlook remains bearish as the breakdown from 1.4282 to 1.2969 is viewed as the first leg of a new multi-month downtrend, and I expect loss of 1.3164 to signal a crack at the 1.2969 swing low, loss to see an acceleration of weakness for the 1.2588 reaction low then psychological 1.2000 as the downtrend extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1.3499/1.3786 from here to threaten the 1.4282 swing high, above which would be bullish on a multi-month basis.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: Stand Aside
USD/CHF has broken through support at 0.9726 to extend the pullback from the 1.0066 swing high keeping downside pressure on as the CHF outperforms. The breakdown threatens the basing scenario which had called for the formation of a reaction low above the 0.9462 October swing low for a return to the 1.0066 swing high, breach of which would confirm a base pattern for a return to the 1.0331/1.0626 congestion zone initially. While 0.9851 caps, I have to allow for an attack on the 0.9462 swing low, loss to re-open psychological 0.9000 before a major low can be attempted.











Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside

USD/CAD formed an inside pattern last week to signal failure ahead of the recent swing low of 0.9978. Still, while inside week resistance at 1.0141 caps I have to allow for a crack at the 0.9930/0.9978 support zone, the loss of which could see breakdown towards the 0.9710/0.9819 region before a major low can form. I would need to see the re-capture of 1.0141 from here to increase basing potential, with re-capture of the 1.0286 swing high seen as the catalyst for a return to reaction highs at 1.0673 and 1.0853 over subsequent weeks as bulls gain control.











Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Sell Stop 3 at 0.9835, Objs: 0.9665/0.9410/0.9155, Stop: 1.0005
AUD/USD has seen an extension of the 0.9537 bull swing on the break above 0.9965 but early signs of topping are noted just above parity. Still, while 0.9835 holds I have to allow for a crack at the 1.0183 swing high, breach to re-open the 1.0300 area in an extension of the major uptrend before a major top can be attempted. Failing that, loss of 0.9835 from here would suggest that a reaction high has formed below the 1.0183 swing high, calling for an attack on the 0.9537 swing low, loss of which would expose old resistance at 0.9388/0.9406 then the 0.8770/0.9221 congestion as a new downtrend gets underway.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY remains buoyant having formed a powerful First Thrust pattern last week suggesting completion of an important low at 129.34. With 129.34 seen as the likely end of the correction of the 126.44/134.20 advance I look for further gains going forward, breach of the 134.20 swing high to signal an attack on 137.77/140.00 initially over coming weeks as a new uptrend gets underway. In the meantime, loss of 129.34 would suggest weakness in the price structure, increasing the risk of seeing another crack at the 126.44 swing low, the loss of which could then see a resumption of the medium-term downtrend towards psychological 120.00.









Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/JPY has breached resistance at 111.76 to extend the recovery from the 108.34 swing low. This gives bulls a small window of opportunity to fail the downside break of support at 111.04, with re-capture of 112.96 to suggest that a bear trap has formed calling for another crack at the 115.66 swing high initially in an extension of the 105.42 advance as the new multi-month advance gets going. Failure to break and hold above 112.96 over the next few weeks would again risk breakdown through 108.34 for 105.42 initially in a resumption of the major downtrend.








Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP is seeing some sideways/higher activity ahead of the recent swing low of 0.8334 as the long lower shadow of two weeks ago buoys. While we could see further sideways action to unwind the decline from 0.8941 the medium-term outlook remains negative after settlement back below the pivotal 0.8531 level, and I expect 0.8522/0.8595 to cap prior to seeing an attack on 0.8067/0.8142 supports initially. Settlement back above 0.8595 would suggest scope for another crack at 0.8800 and possibly the 0.8941 swing high, breach of which would re-open the 0.9148 reaction high as the 0.8067 advance extends.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: SHORT 2 at 1.3150, Objs: 1.2750/1.2510, Stop: 1.3015
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
Lowered stop to 1.3015. EUR/CHF has broken through the recent swing low at 1.2932 to see the decisive break below psychological support at 1.3000. While the intra-week high at 1.3006 caps the immediate risk is for a crack at the 1.2765 September swing low, loss of which should then see an acceleration down towards 1.2500 as the long-term downtrend extends. In the meantime, re-capture of 1.3006 would suggest basing, although I would need to see re-capture broken support at 1.3229 to stabilise.








Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold formed a potentially bearish reversal pattern last week as cracks start to appear in the major uptrend. Indeed, the failure to sustain the break above the previous swing high at 1424.60 suggests that a Bull Trap may have formed at 1431.25, and I look for loss of 1371.45 to signal a return to the 1329.70 reaction low and possibly support at 1265.30/1300.00 over subsequent weeks as the corrective pullback extends. I would need to see settlement back above 1424.60 from here to signal a revival for 1500.00/1519.50 (psychological/projection target) as the bull-run resumes.








Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver rejected sharply from 30.7050 last week to form a potentially bearish reversal week. The breakdown suggests that a Bull Trap may have formed above the old swing high of 29.3600 increasing the risk of seeing a deeper setback towards the 25.0100 reaction low in an extension of the bull market correction. I would need to see the settlement back above 29.3600 to again call for a crack at the 30.7050 swing high then the 33.7100 projection target over subsequent weeks.










Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228


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Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454