USD / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
USD/JPY is showing early signs of basing in the 81.37 area as the 85.94 bear leg runs out of steam after three consecutive down-weeks. While we could see some side/up action to unwind the move the break below the 82.88 previous swing low should keep pressure on the downside, and I look for 82.88/83.98 to cap prior to breakdown towards the all time low at 79.75 posted in 1995 over coming weeks. I would need to see the re-capture of last week’s high at 83.98 to suggest completion of a bear trap, with the focus then on 85.94 then broken head and shoulders neckline support at 88.14 and possibly psychological 90.00 in a more positive medium-term scenario.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: LONG 1 at 1.5590, Objs: 1.6255, Stop: 1.5748
Technical Report & Charts
GBP / USD
Cable has extended the 1.5297 upswing to breach the previous swing high at 1.5997 but early signs of stalling are noted just above 1.6000. Still, while last week’s low at 1.5749 holds to focus remains to the upside for an extension of the advance towards the 1.6458 reaction high as the larger advance from 1.4230 looks to extend. In the meantime, loss of 1.5749 would suggest completion of a bull trap, increasing risk of seeing a return to 1.5297/1.5500, the loss of which would be bearish for Cable on a multi-week basis calling for much lower levels.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/USD is starting to see some profit taking as the powerful advance from 1.2588 stalls in the 1.4000/1.4133 projected resistance zone. While we could see a period of corrective activity to unwind the advance which saw four consecutive bullish Thrust weeks, I would expect any weakness to be temporary and limited to the 1.3334/1.3637 region prior to basing for an extension of the larger 1.1876 advance towards the 1.4580 reaction high in due course. I would need to see settlement back under the old swing high at 1.3334 from here to suggest that a bull trap has formed, with the focus then switching back to the 1.2588 reaction low initially in a bearish medium-term scenario.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
USD / CHF
Strategy: Stand Aside
USD/CHF is starting to attract support in the 0.9555 region as the highly over-extended nature of the recent downdraft becomes apparent to the market. I suspect that we will see a period of corrective upside activity to unwind the latest leg of the decline which saw three consecutive Thrust weeks, and see room for a bounce back towards the 0.9789/0.9919 region before a reaction high can form for eventual breakdown towards psychological 0.9000 over subsequent weeks. I would need to see the settlement back above 0.9919 from here to suggest that a bear trap has formed, with the prospects then for a stronger rebound back towards the 1.0331/1.0626 congestion zone as losses from 1.1731 are retraced.







Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD / CAD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside

USD/CAD is seeing a reaction high after the breakdown through key support coming in from the August swing low at 1.0107. The move signalled completion of a lateral band in operation over the past few months which was viewed as a bearish continuation pattern within the long-term downtrend dating back to March 2009, and I now look for 1.0187/1.0273 to cap prior to seeing eventual breakdown through the 0.9930 April swing low in a resumption of the major downtrend. I would need to see the re-capture of 1.0273 from here to suggest that a bear trap has formed, with the focus then back on 1.0673/1.0853 as a potential base pattern forms.








Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD / USD
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
AUD/USD is starting to see some corrective weakness following the run-up to the 0.9918 swing high. The advance from 0.8770 looks highly over-extended following seven gravity-defying up-weeks and I suspect that we will see a period of consolidation to unwind the advance over the next few weeks, with the possibility of seeing a retracement back towards 0.9406/0.9542 before a reaction low can form for a resumption of the major uptrend towards psychological 1.0000 to follow. I would need to see settlement back under 0.9406 from here to suspect that a bull trap has formed, with risk then for a return to 0.9221 then 0.8770 as medium-term bears gain control.




Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454



Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: LONG 3 at 132.08, Objs: 135.11/139.65/144.20, Stop: 129.05
GBP / JPY
GBP/JPY remains under pressure as the cross fails to respond to support coming in at 130.07/132.52 as expected. Settlement below here would suggest that the 135.04 recovery high was a reaction high within the lateral trading range in place since a 126.72 swing low was trade back in May. This would raise the spectre of seeing breakdown through 126.72/127.63 for psychological 120.00 initially as the 163.09 downtrend resumes. Failing that, re-capture of 133.01 would be required to add credence to a basing scenario, with scope then for a crack at 135.04 then key resistance at 137.77, breach to confirm a double bottom pattern calling for multi-month gains. in the meantime, settlement below 130.07 would risk breakdown through.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


EUR / JPY
Technical Report & Charts
Strategy: Stand Aside
EUR/JPY is starting to see some corrective activity as the over-extended nature of recent gains which saw three consecutive bullish Thrust weeks becomes apparent. While I see scope for a period of side to down action to unwind the advance from 105.42 to 115.66 I remain bullish over the medium-term following completion of a bear trap below the July swing low and look for the 109.05/112.31 area to hold prior to seeing an attack on broken support at 119.65 next as a large double bottom pattern breaks. In the meantime, loss of support at 109.05 would suggest that the rebound has run its course, exposing 105.42 then 99.89/100.00 (June 2001 low/psychological) over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.





Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Strategy: Stand Aside
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /GBP
EUR/GBP is starting to show signs of over-extension in the 0.8800 region as the recent accelerated advance which followed the breach of key resistance at 0.8531 loses steam. The upside break completed a large base pattern for this cross turning the major trend “up” after a long period of GBP outperformance, and I look for corrective weakness to be held by 0.8400/0.8599 prior to seeing an attack on psychological 0.9000 then the 0.9148 reaction high as the move extends. In the meantime, loss of 0.8400 would suggest completion of a bear market rally, paving the way for an attack of support at 0.8067/0.8142, penetration of which should then see breakdown towards 0.7693 over subsequent weeks as the major downtrend resumes.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Strategy: LONG 2 at 1.3140, Objs: 1.3778/1.4160, Stop: 1.3160
Technical Report & Charts
EUR /CHF
EUR/CHF has extended the recovery from 1.2765 to breach the 1.3390 recovery high but early signs of stalling are noted at 1.3493. Still, while First Thrust support at 1.3164 continues to hold I remain positive on a multi-week basis, looking for an extension of the recovery from 1.2765 towards the last reaction high within the 2007/2010 bear market at 1.3924 and possibly broken support at 1.4300 as the short squeeze extends. In the meantime, loss of support at 1.3164 would suggest that a bull trap has formed, increasing the risk of breakdown through 1.2765 towards 1.2500 next as medium-term bears regain control.



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Technical Report & Charts

Spot Gold
Strategy: Stand Aside

Gold is looking highly over-extended following the accelerated break through June’s previous record high at 1265.30 after completion of a fourth consecutive bullish Thrust pattern. The risk of seeing a period of corrective activity is high and we could easily see some side/down activity to unwind the latest leg of the advance, with the 1300.00/1312.55 area possible on a retracement. Further out the medium-term outlook remains positive, and I would expect support to hold for an attack on 1400.00 further out. I would need to settlement back under the old swing high at 1265.30 to increase the prospects that a bull trap may have formed, switching the focus back to outside week support at 1210.30 and possibly 1157.03 as medium-term bears gain control.







Spot Gold weekly chart, Source Bloomberg Finance LP



Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Technical Report & Charts
Spot Silver

Strategy: Stand Aside

Silver is look highly over-extended following seven consecutive up-weeks which saw the break above the March 2008 swing high at 21.335. While I see room for some side/down activity to unwind the recent accelerated move I would expect support in the 21.000/21.820 region to hold for a push towards the measured move target at 24.265 then psychological 25.000 over subsequent weeks. I would need to see the settlement back under 20.000/21.335 to suggest that a bull trap has formed, raising the prospects of seeing a return to 17.198/17.337 supports initially as medium-term bears gain control








Spot Silver weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP




Howard Friend, Chief Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454


Disclaimer
No information published constitutes an offer or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests

Copyright

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK













Howard Friend, Chief Market Strategist, E-mail: h.friend@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454